Last week, several news items represented good examples of how investors could look at the same data and draw different conclusions. Consider these:
1. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.8 percent pace in the October through December period.
Bullish investors say that’s up from 1.8 percent the previous quarter and the fastest pace in a year and a half.
Bearish investors say it’s less than the 3.0 percent growth expected by economists and most of the growth was due to inventory accumulation.
Source: MarketWatch
2. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2012 and 2013.
Bullish investors say fears are overblown as private-sector economic activity in the 17-nation euro zone showed small, but unexpected, growth in January and durable-goods orders were up a strong 3.0 percent in December in the U.S. – the third straight increase.
Bearish investors say just heed the IMF’s warning, “Global growth prospects dimmed and risks sharply escalated during the fourth quarter of 2011, as the euro-area crisis entered a perilous new phase.”
Source: MarketWatch
*3. Spanish and Italian bond yields dropped dramatically lately.
Bullish investors say the drop in yields and the strong demand in January’s bond auctions suggest the euro zone crisis is easing.
Bearish investors say the Portuguese bond market is now imploding, the Greek restructuring could fall apart, and the European Central Bank’s December offer of unlimited three-year loans to banks has simply delayed the inevitable day of reckoning.
Source: The Wall Street
It’s differences of opinion like this that make mJournal.</arkets. Thanks to the free market, there always seems to be a buyer for every seller – at a price.
Like Joni Mitchell who sang, “I’ve looked at life from both sides now,” we look at the markets from both the bullish and bearish sides and, ultimately, make decisions which we think will best position you to meet your long-term goals and objectives.
| Data as of 01/27/12 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 0.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 15.9% | -1.5% | 1.5% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | 1.9 | 7.4 | -12.2 | 14.5 | -3.8 | 5.5 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 1.9 | N/A | 3.4 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 4.4 | 9.6 | 29.3 | 24.4 | 21.8 | 20.0 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | 3.8 | 4.2 | -8.1 | 9.9 | -1.8 | 5.2 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | 3.0 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 29.7 | -1.5 | 10.9 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
WHAT WORRIES AMERICANS THE MOST about the national economy? Here’s the top 10 answers and the percentage who said it, according to an early January Gallup survey.
1. Jobs/unemployment 26%
2. National debt/Federal budget deficit 16%
3. Continuing economic decline/economic instability 10%
4. Outsourcing of jobs overseas/creating jobs in U.S. 6%
5. Obama not doing a good job/no plan/lack of leadership 5%
6. Political bickering/Congress 4%
7. Healthcare/Medicaid 3%
8. Corporate corruption/corporations run the government 3%
9. Housing crisis 3%
10. The future of our children 2%
11. Eight other responses also checked in at 2 percent
The top two items are not really a surprise, but what’s revealing is how low some “important” issues ranked. Taxes, recession, social security, gas prices, education affordability, and the divide between rich and poor (think Occupy Wall Street) all pulled just 2 percent. The stock market and interest rates barely made the list at 1 percent each and ranking 21st and 25th, respectively, out of 26 on the full list.
Interestingly, if we can resolve the two biggest items on the list – the jobs and debt situations – it would most likely also resolve the third item on the list – continuing economic decline.
Do you think the politicians are listening?
(Note: responses total more than 100 percent due to multiple answers.)
Weekly Focus – Just for fun: How to Turn a Watch into a Compass
Let’s assume that you are lost in the wilderness, but you have a watch that still works. You can easily find the cardinal points by pointing the hour hand at the sun. Then form an imaginary line directly through the center of the “wedge” that is created between the hour hand and 12 o’clock. This is your south–north line. The height of the sun in the sky and the time of day will then show you which end of the line is north and which is south, remembering that the sun sets in the west and rises in the east. Try this at home first!
—Bear Grylls, survivalist, TV host, adapted from his 2008 book, “Man vs. Wild”
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
1. The worst performing stocks in 2011 have been the best performing in 2012. Bespoke Investment Group did an analysis and discovered that the 50 worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 in 2011 were up a whopping 11.2 percent YTD 2012 as of last Wednesday. By contrast, the 50 best performing stocks in 2011 were up only 2.1 percent so far in 2012. What a difference a “turn of the calendar” makes!
2. U.S. Treasury securities are off to their worst start in nine years. With improvements in the employment situation, housing sales hitting an 11-month high and a reprieve in the European debt problem, investors have less need for conservative treasuries and a bigger appetite for riskier stocks, according to Bloomberg and CNBC. At the moment, investors seem to be saying, “risk on.”
3. U.S. stocks rose for the third consecutive week and are near a six-month high. Despite a decidedly mixed start to the 4th quarter earnings season, stocks have roared out of the gate this year and are now up 20 percent from the October 2011 low, according to Reuters. Of course, too much euphoria could lead to disappointment later.
4. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined nearly 22 percent in the first three weeks of this year. The big decline in the VIX suggests investors are less fearful about near-term market volatility, according to CNBC. In fact, the VIX is down to a seven-month low, according to Reuters. While the markets may be calm now, we’re not complacent.
Trends come and go in the market, but one thing that stays constant is our diligence in helping you reach your goals.
| Data as of 01/20/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 2.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 17.8% | -1.6% | 1.6% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | 3.9 | 5.4 | -12.3 | 14.6 | -4.2 | 5.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 2.0 | N/A | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.1 | 5.0 | 22.9 | 24.7 | 20.9 | 19.3 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | 0.5 | 0.4 | -12.3 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 4.8 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | 2.5 | 3.7 | 11.2 | 32.2 | -1.5 | 10.6 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
WHY IS IT THAT CONSERVATIVES TEND TO WATCH FOX NEWS and those with more liberal leanings tend to watch MSNBC? Psychologists would tell us it’s because of what they call “confirmation bias.” Confirmation bias is the tendency of humans to seek information that confirms an already held belief or opinion and to avoid or discount information that might contradict an existing belief or opinion.
This concept also applies to investing and it’s very important to avoid it as much as possible.
For example, let’s say we’re really bullish on the U.S. stock market. If we let confirmation bias cloud our judgment, then during our research, we would tend to read the reports that support our bullish view of the market and let that reinforce our decision to be bullish. By contrast, we would tend to avoid reading the reports that are bearish, or, if we do read them, we would come up with reasons why they were wrong.
When we’re under the spell of confirmation bias, it’s easy to miss turning points because we’re stuck on our current belief or opinion and won’t change even when we see contradicting evidence. That, of course, would be bad for your long-term wealth.
How strong is the confirmation bias pull?
A 2009 meta study published by the American Psychological Association reviewed 91 studies in the area of confirmation bias and concluded that people were nearly two times as likely to seek information which supported their existing view than to seek information which contradicted their current view. That’s a strong pull!
How do we overcome this pull?
Here are two keys that could help:
1. Acknowledge that confirmation bias exists. Knowing that it exists helps us try to avoid falling into its trap.
2. Actively seek contradictory opinions. This is another way of asking what could go wrong with an investment and then doing our best to ensure we understand the “other side of the coin.”
So, in addition to making a “rational” case for an investment, we have to make sure we avoid letting psychological biases get in the way.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“If you take emotion – would be, could be, should be – out of it, and look at what is, and quantify it, I think you have a big advantage over most human beings.”
—John W. Henry, trading advisor, principal owner of Boston Red Sox
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Late last week, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) announced it was downgrading the credit rating of nine of the eurozone’s 16 members including behemoths France and Spain. In addition, 14 of the 16 members have “negative outlooks” which means S&P believes, “that there is at least a one-in-three chance that the rating will be lowered in 2012 or 2013.” The only two countries with stable credit outlooks are Germany (no surprise) and Slovakia, a former Communist country that became an independent state in 1993 after the dissolution of Czechoslovakia.
What does this mean for the future of Europe and the economy?
The New York Times called it, “A move that may have more symbolic than fundamental financial impact, but served as a reminder that Europe’s economic woes were far from over.” Underscoring that, the U.S. downgrade, has – so far – not caused much of a problem. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yielded a slim 1.85 percent last Friday, an indication that investors still view the U.S. as a safe haven. The bottom line is everybody knows Europe has problems and the downgrade, while not helpful, simply puts an exclamation point on the obvious.
Back in the U.S., investors seemed more interested last week in tracking our economic momentum which included an eight-month high in consumer sentiment and an improved assessment of the economy from the Fed’s Beige Book. Econoday summed it up nicely when they wrote, “Traders and investors have been moving toward the position that European problems deserve less weight than they have been given in recent months.” That may be true in the short term, but if Europe craters because of their sovereign debt problems, it’s unlikely the U.S. will escape unscathed.
Unlike Las Vegas, what happens in Europe may not stay in Europe.
| Data as of 01/13/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 0.9% | 2.5% | -0.3% | 13.9% | -2.1% | 1.3% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | 1.3 | 1.5 | -16.7 | 10.6 | -4.9 | 4.8 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 1.9 | N/A | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.2 | 3.9 | 18.4 | 25.5 | 21.1 | 19.0 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | -1.4 | -0.1 | -13.2 | 7.4 | -2.4 | 4.5 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | 1.4 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 26.8 | -2.0 | 10.2 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
THE ANNUAL CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SHOW (CES) just wrapped up in Las Vegas and, as usual, it featured a dazzling array of must-have new gizmos and gadgets that will likely show up in your hand or in your family room sometime down the road. With 2,700 exhibitors and 150,000 total attendees, it’s the showcase event for everything electronic.
We thought it’d be fun to take a look at some of today’s commonplace gadgets that were introduced at CES and have you guess the year of their debut. So, here goes…
What year did these devices debut at CES?
It’s not all fun and games at a show like CES. As you can see from the list above, these devices have spawned major industries that generated tremendous economic activity. Innovation is vital for economic growth, and a show like CES helps spotlight the latest electronic advances and, perhaps, the next driver of the economy.
One of the big highlights at the just concluded show was the unveiling of LG’s 55-inch OLED TV packed with 3D bells and smart TV whistles. So, what in the world is an OLED TV? It’s a TV that uses a new display technology called OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diodes). OLED televisions are brighter, more efficient, thinner, and feature better refresh rates and contrast than either LCD or Plasma TVs. And boy is it thin. The LG 55-inch OLED TV is only 0.2 inches deep at its thinnest point and weighs a measly 16.5 pounds. If you’re an early adopter, you’ll want one of these beauties in your home theater later this year.
Okay, here are the answers to the “device debut” question, according to CNBC.
Digital video discs (1996), Satellite radio (2000), Videocassette recorder (1970), CD player (1981), Blu-ray disc (2003), High-definition television (1998), and Camcorder (1981).
How many did you correctly answer?
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“It’s easy to come up with new ideas; the hard part is letting go of what worked for you two years ago, but will soon be out of date.” —Roger von Oech, author, inventor, consultant
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
To answer that question, Bespoke Investment Group performed a decile analysis and concluded that having a high dividend yield was the most important factor affecting stock prices in 2011.
In their analysis, they discovered that the three deciles with the highest dividend yield were the only ones to experience a positive return for the year. In fact, while the S&P 500 index was unchanged for the year, the top three highest-yielding deciles rose 10.4 percent, 6.4 percent, and 8.7 percent, respectively. The remaining seven deciles all experienced a loss for the year.
Now, it won’t always turn out that the highest dividend yielding stocks are the best performers. Some years, investors will be more adventurous and bid up the riskier stocks that tend to pay low or no dividends.
Will the tide turn in 2012 and see the outperformance of the low or no dividend stocks? A lot will depend on how the economy shakes out.
Based on last week’s unemployment report, it looks like we ended 2011 with some economic momentum. The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent, the lowest in almost three years, according to BusinessWeek.
This week marks the beginning of another quarterly earnings season so the next 30 days or so should give us a good indication of the strength of the underlying economy.
| Data as of 01/06/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 11.0% | -2.0% | 0.9% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | 0.2 | 0.2 | -16.1 | 7.7 | -4.9 | 4.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 2.0 | N/A | 3.4 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 2.7 | 2.7 | 18.1 | 24.0 | 21.5 | 19.2 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | 1.3 | 1.3 | -10.3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 4.4 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | -0.2 | -0.2 | 7.8 | 20.8 | -1.2 | 10.1 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
WERE THE “NIFTY-FIFTY” REALLY THAT NIFTY? Back in the early 1970s, pundits fawned over some of the era’s fastest growing, industry-leading companies who seemed to defy the sluggish overall economy. Dubbed the Nifty-Fifty, these glamour stocks were well-known “one-decision” stocks that institutional investors clamored to own. So, how well did these stocks do over the last 40 years? Were they truly “one-decision” stocks?
While there was no official list of the Nifty-Fifty, two competing lists of 50 stocks are commonly cited, according to a research report titled, “The Nifty-Fifty Re-Revisited,” by Jeff Fesenmaier and Gary Smith of Pomona College. For today’s purpose, we’ll look at the 24 stocks that made both lists and were dubbed the “Terrific 24” by Fesenmaier and Smith.
Some of the household names on the Terrific 24 list include: McDonald’s, Walt Disney, Avon, Johnson and Johnson, and Coca-Cola. These companies are still doing well. However, some other household names on the Terrific 24 list performed poorly. Consider the following:
Xerox: It’s still around, but is a shadow of its former self and trades for about $8 per share.
MGIC Investment Corp: It went through various corporate restructurings throughout the years, but is still around as a private mortgage insurer. However, it got battered in the mortgage insurance meltdown of recent years and trades for about $4 per share.
Polaroid: The inventor of instant film couldn’t make the transition to a new world and filed for bankruptcy in 2001.
Eastman Kodak: Perhaps the saddest story of the bunch, Kodak has struggled for years to make the transition to a digital world and is now rumored to file for bankruptcy as early as this month, according to Reuters. Its stock sold for less than 50 cents per share last week. Ironically, Kodak invented the digital camera in 1975, but was never able to capitalize on it.
With 40 years of history, here are three key lessons we can learn from the Nifty-Fifty story:
1. Some “glamour” stocks do remain glamorous for many years, e.g, McDonald’s, Walt Disney, and Coca-Cola (although each had its “rough periods” over the past 40 years).
2. Promoting “one-decision” stocks is more of a headline-grabbing marketing strategy than a sound investment strategy.
3. Even the “best” stocks can fall to zero so it’s important to have a sell discipline.
As the British statesman and philosopher Edmund Burke said, “Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.”
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The supreme purpose of history is a better world.” —Herbert Hoover, U.S. President
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
There was “much ado” during 2011 as we experienced one of the most volatile years on record. For example, regarding the S&P 500 index stocks, Bloomberg said, “Individual stocks were more volatile than in 2009 and 2010, with 55 losing more than 30 percent this year compared with a total of 13 in the prior two.”
On top of that, “Stocks swung at a daily rate of twice the 50-year average after the S&P 500 reached a three-year high in April.” After hitting that high in April, the S&P 500 then plunged 19 percent over the next five months. Continuing the whiplash, the market staged a remarkable comeback and that’s where the “about nothing” comes in to play.
By the time the final trades were placed on December 30, the S&P 500 ended the year exactly where it started – and we mean exactly! It started the year at 1,257.6 and it ended the year at 1,257.6. Yet, during that time, it moved up or down a total of 3,240 points when you sum the absolute daily changes on a closing basis, according to The Chart Store via Ritholtz.com. So, after all the volatility, after all the worrying, the market ended the year right where it began. Whew!
Despite the year ending in a push, here are 10 newsworthy items that hit the headlines.
1. Europe reached crisis mode. Several European countries experienced severe budget problems including Greece and Italy while the dithering of European politicians kept markets on edge. The three main causes of the crisis were 1) excessive government spending leading to 2) excessive government debt coupled with 3) slow economic growth.
Source: Anthony Sanders, Professor of Real Estate Finance at George Mason University, December 15, 2011
2. Interest rates continued to fall. The 10-year Treasury ended the year yielding below 2 percent and the 30-year yielded below 3 percent. On a total return basis, the 30-year Treasury jumped 35 percent in 2011, which is higher than every stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average!
Sources: The Wall Street Journal; Barron’s
3. The Middle East rose in protest. Mass protests swept the Middle East, governments were overthrown, and the political landscape was dramatically reshaped. The reverberations will last for years.
Source: The Economist
4. Apple and Steve Jobs were everywhere. Apple was 90 days away from bankruptcy in the late 1990s, but through the magic of Steve Jobs, the company briefly became the world’s most valuable company in 2011 – surpassing Exxon! The iPhone was the #1 most searched term on Yahoo! for the year. And, yes, Steve Jobs passed away from cancer at the much too young age of 56.
Sources: Bloomberg; Yahoo! News
5. Japan was rocked with a massive earthquake and tsunami. The devastating power of Mother Nature claimed more than 15,000 lives, shocked financial markets, and disrupted business around the world. The pain and scars of this tragedy will remain for many years.
Source: Bloomberg
6. The U.S. credit rating got “dinged.” In August, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the AAA credit rating of the United States due to political bickering and unsustainable budget deficits. The stock market promptly fell yet, surprisingly, interest rates ended the year at extremely low levels.
Source: Bloomberg
7. Gold kept its luster. Despite weakness at the end of the year, gold prices finished the year in positive territory for the 11th consecutive year. In times of uncertainty, investors have shown a preference for the yellow metal.
Source: The Economic Times
8. Foreign stock markets took it on the chin. Unchanged in the U.S. looks good compared to China, which fell 22 percent; Hong Kong, down 20 percent; Brazil, down 18 percent; Germany, down 14.7 percent; and Britain, down 5.6 percent. There’s no place like home!
Sources: Associated Press via Yahoo! News; Bloomberg
9. Burgers and banks were bookends. The best performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2011 was McDonald’s, which rose 31 percent. At the other extreme, Bank of America was the worst performer dropping 58 percent. Looks like a lot of people ordered an extra fry with that Big Mac.
Source: Associated Press via Yahoo! News
10. “Planking” became a worldwide phenomenon. Traced back to a 20-something Australian, planking involves lying face down on the ground with your arms at your side. The “trick” is to do it in unusual places or atop peculiar objects. The unrelated “fitness” version of planking also made headlines in 2011 when a 71-year-old Wisconsinite named Betty Lou Sweeney set a new Guinness World Record by holding an abdominal plank for an incredible 36 minutes and 58 seconds. What’s even more incredible is in 2009 she was “severely overweight and nearly died from complications from an infection that went septic and shut down her kidneys.” Two years later and 100 pounds lighter, she set the world record. Yes, there’s hope for all of us!
Source: Yahoo! News
| Data as of 12/31/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | -0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.7% | -2.4% | 0.9% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | 0.3 | -16.7 | -16.7 | 8.8 | -5.2 | 4.5 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 1.9 | N/A | 3.3 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -2.1 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 22.1 | 19.9 | 19.0 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | -0.4 | -13.4 | -13.4 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 4.7 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | -0.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 20.8 | -1.4 | 10.2 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot.”
—Michael Altshuler, speaker, entrepreneur
Happy New Year!
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
All this volatility and the lack of a clear, sustained direction in the market have frustrated many investors.
The problems in Europe and the budget wrangling in the U.S. have kept investors in a risk-on, risk-off mode throughout much of this year. As a result, many stocks have traded in herd-like fashion without much regard to individual company fundamentals, according to investment manager Duke Buchan, III.
At times like this, it’s important to have patience and as Warren Buffett says, wait for that “fat pitch.”
| Data as of 12/16/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | -2.8% | -3.0% | -2.0% | 10.1% | -3.0% | 0.7% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | -3.9 | -18.8 | -16.7 | 8.3 | -5.5 | 4.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 1.9 | N/A | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -6.7 | 13.0 | 16.9 | 23.9 | 21.0 | 19.1 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | -4.2 | -15.6 | -10.8 | 6.4 | -3.8 | 4.4 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | 0.2 | 3.6 | 9.2 | 19.6 | -2.0 | 9.8 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
WHAT IS THE PRICE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH in China and how does it affect us in the U.S.? Ever since 1978 when Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping laid out a vision of economic reform, China has been on a growth spurt of massive proportion. However, that growth comes with a huge price in the form of limited freedom. Last week, Chinese leaders clamped down again on freedom of speech in an effort to control the spread of social unrest.
In China, the government blocks access to the microblog service “Twitter” and, instead, a Chinese version called “Weibo” has become popular. In total, more than 300 million Chinese people use microblogs, with Weibo the most popular, according to Bloomberg.
Regarding last week’s clampdown, Chinese officials announced that users of Weibo in Beijing will have to register their real names and be verified by government authorities before posting on the service. In addition, users are banned from posting anything that could lead to disrupting the social order, according to The Wall Street Journal.
This isn’t the first government crackdown on freedom of speech. Earlier in the year, the government blocked citizens’ access to searches on the “Arab Spring” that was rumbling through the Middle East. Prior to that, the government blocked access to Facebook, YouTube, and Google.
What’s the government’s problem with freedom of speech?
As the “Arab Spring” uprising in the Middle East demonstrated, social media can enable millions of people to communicate and mobilize in short order. China seems to be very afraid of letting its citizens have this capability for fear that a popular uprising could lead to chaos in a sprawling country of 1.3 billion people.
With China still a major growth engine for the world economy, we have to pay close attention to any social trends affecting the country. If the government clamps down too hard and its citizens rise up, it could quickly morph from a social/political movement to one that has major worldwide economic implications. On top of that, China is gearing up for a once in a decade leadership change in 2012 and, given the country’s history, a smooth transition is not guaranteed.
When investing money, you have to consider possible “black swan” events that have a low probability of occurring, but, if they do occur, could wreak havoc. A Chinese uprising could be one of those and we want you to know that it’s on our radar.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.” —George Washington, U.S. President
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
On the surface, economic growth would seem to be the logical answer since as the economy grows, earnings should grow, too. But, digging a little deeper, the answer is not so clear cut.
What muddles the answer is that large U.S. multinational companies generate about 47 percent of their revenue from outside the U.S., according to Standard and Poor’s. When that revenue is translated back into U.S. dollars, the revenue could vary significantly depending on whether the dollar is strong, weak, or neutral.
For example, if the dollar is strong, then foreign revenue translates into fewer dollars which reduces a U.S. company’s reported revenue. Lower revenue could lead to lower profits and possibly lower stock prices. The reverse is also true. If the dollar is weak, then foreign revenue translates into more dollars which increases a U.S. company’s reported revenue and could lead to higher profits.
We’re talking about the value of the dollar today because of the uncertainty surrounding numerous world currencies. The euro, in particular, is on the radar because it might soar or plunge depending on how Europe cleans up its sovereign debt problem. And, with Europe accounting for 22 percent of our total exports so far this year, any major change in the value of the euro could significantly affect U.S. corporate revenue and profits, according to the Commerce Department.
That’s why Christopher Wood, strategist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets says, “The key variable for the U.S. stock market is not the U.S. economy, but the U.S. dollar.”
In a globally based economy, the value of the dollar matters. It’s one more variable that could affect stock prices and bears monitoring.
| Data as of 12/9/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 0.9% | -0.2% | 1.2% | 12.2% | -2.3% | 1.0% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | -1.4 | -15.5 | -13.0 | 11.3 | -4.5 | 4.6 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 2.1 | N/A | 3.2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -2.2 | 21.2 | 22.8 | 30.6 | 22.2 | 20.1 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | -2.3 | -12.0 | -7.1 | 9.5 | -3.3 | 5.0 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | 1.5 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 23.9 | -2.5 | 9.8 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
IT’S NOT JUST HOW MUCH A COMPANY EARNS, but how much of an earnings multiple investors put on those earnings that helps determine stock prices. To illustrate this, let’s assume it’s your lucky day and you have the ability to inherit one of the following five companies. Based on the data given in the following chart, which of the five companies would you choose to inherit?
| Company | 2010 Annual Revenue | 2010 Operating Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Ford (car company) | $128,954,000,000 | 6,658,000,000 |
| DuPont (chemicals) | 32,733,000,000 | 3,711,000,000 |
| Honeywell (manufacturer) | 33,370,000,000 | 3,134,000,000 |
| eBay (e-commerce) | 9,156,000,000 | 2,054,000,000 |
| VMware (software) | 2,857,000,000 | 428,000,000 |
Source: Morningstar
Just looking at the numbers, you might think Ford would be the obvious choice. Its revenue was nearly four times the next closest company and its operating profit last year was nearly 80 percent higher than the next closest company.
Interestingly, the stock market can tell us how it thinks these five companies stack up against one another. It turns out that as of last week, the market value of these five companies (stock price times shares outstanding) was between $40.5 billion and $41.9 billion. In other words, the stock market valued these companies at basically the same price.
That may seem strange since the financial metrics of these five companies differs significantly. How can Ford, with $129 billion in annual revenue and $6.7 billion in operating profit be worth about the same as VMware, a company with just $2.9 billion in annual revenue and an operating profit of only $0.4 billion?
This highlights the point that in the long run, earnings do drive stock prices; however, the value that investors place on those earnings can vary significantly from one company to the next at any point in time. So, what causes investors to value a small company like VMware at about the same market value as the much larger Ford? Ah, that’s the million-dollar question which keeps investment analysts gainfully employed!
We mention these five stocks not as a buy or sell recommendation, but simply to point out that numerous factors affect the valuation of stock prices. It’s not as simple as saying those with the most profits win.
Weekly Focus – Shuffling Cards
Playing cards is about as American as baseball, hot dogs, and apple pie. So here’s a trivia question for you. How many times must you shuffle a deck of 52 playing cards in order to ensure it is truly scrambled?
Mathematicians have studied this problem and determined that even after six shuffles you can still find patches of non-random sequences. It’s the seventh shuffle that does the trick. At seven shuffles you reach a tipping point and the deck turns into chaos, according to the book Magical Mathematics by Persi Diaconis and Ron Graham as reported in The Wall Street Journal. So, if you are concerned that one of your table mates is a skilled cheat, make sure you shuffle at least seven times!
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
At 8:00 a.m. EST on November 30, the Federal Reserve released a statement that sent worldwide financial markets skyrocketing. Here’s the first paragraph of the statement:
The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.
The U.S. Federal Reserve went on to say that should liquidity conditions continue to deteriorate, it has “a range of tools available” and “is prepared to use these tools as needed.” For many investors, this move meant world central banks “get it” and are ready to pull out “the big guns” to keep the worldwide economy from grinding to a halt.
Investors rejoiced and, by the end of the day, stocks had soared as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.2 percent, according to The Wall Street Journal.
While the central banks’ moves were welcome, they don’t solve the economy’s underlying problem. Certain European countries (and the U.S., too) suffer from too much debt and too little growth. The banks’ moves were akin to taking ibuprofen — they mask the pain, but don’t provide a cure.
The cure likely won’t happen until European politicians agree on a credible and enforceable, “long-term regime of fiscal discipline,” according to The Wall Street Journal. While European leaders meet frequently to discuss policy solutions, they unfortunately suffer from the old truism, “When it’s all said and done, a lot more gets said than gets done.”
| Data as of 12/2/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 7.4% | -1.1% | 1.6% | 13.6% | -2.5% | 1.0% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | 8.7 | -14.4 | -10.9 | 13.6 | -4.2 | 4.9 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 2.0 | N/A | 3.0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 3.5 | 23.9 | 25.8 | 30.8 | 22.0 | 20.3 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | 3.2 | -9.9 | -3.6 | 7.9 | -3.1 | 4.9 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | 6.1 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 28.6 | -3.0 | 9.9 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
WHO WANTS TO BE A BILLIONAIRE? Ever wonder how billionaires got to that level? Here are 10 success tips shared by four billionaires on a recent episode of the news show “20/20:”
1. Figure out what you’re so passionate about that you’d be happy doing it for 10 years, even if you never made any money from it. That’s what you should be doing.
2. Always be true to yourself.
3. Figure out what your values are and live by them, in business and in life.
4. Rather than focus on work-life separation, focus on work-life integration.
5. Don’t network. Focus on building real relationships and friendships where the relationship itself is its own reward, instead of trying to get something out of the relationship to benefit your business or yourself.
6. Remember to maximize for happiness, not money or status.
7. Get ready for rejection.
8. Success unshared is failure. Give back — share your wealth.
9. The truth is cold and hard, but it’s the first point on the path to hope and salvation.
10. Successful people do all the things unsuccessful people don’t want to do.
Even if you’re not focused on becoming a billionaire, these are some pretty good tips to live by. Which ones resonate with you?
Weekly Focus – Fun With Math
It’s been said that compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. Compound interest simply means that you get “interest on your interest” instead of just interest on your original principal. Here are a couple math questions that display the power of compounding.
A typical piece of copy paper is 0.004 inches thick. If you were able to fold this piece of paper in half everyday for 10 days (i.e., double the thickness each day), how thick would your paper be after 10 days?
Taking this a step further, how many times would you have to fold your paper in half in order for your piece of paper to be as thick as the average distance between the earth and the moon? Here’s a hint: the average distance between the earth and moon is 238,857 miles.
Are you ready for the answers? After 10 days, your paper would be 4.1 inches thick. And, to reach the moon, you’d have to fold your paper in half each day for just 42 days. Surprised?
The power of compounding also makes a good case for reinvesting your dividends so you can get a “return on your return.”
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Living in an age of jet travel, the internet and mobile communication have their advantages. They make our world of 7 billion people seem a bit smaller since we’re just one plane ride or “one boot of the computer” away from connecting with anyone in the world.
But, along with the good comes the bad.
Worldwide interconnectedness not only connects us socially, it also connects us economically. What happens in China, for example, doesn’t necessarily stay in China. A collapse of their real estate market or a revolt against the government could have repercussions around the world.
A bit closer to home, the sovereign debt problems in Europe are helping keep a lid on stock prices in the U.S., according to MarketWatch. As the debt problem spreads from the peripheral euro-zone countries to the core in Germany — which had a failed bond auction last week — the U.S. is caught in the cross fire.
What’s disappointing about being joined at the hip with Europe is that the U.S. economy is actually performing okay. Consider these positive points:
Granted, these improvements are coming off a low base and are so fragile that the modest recovery in the U.S. could get derailed if the euro-zone situation continues to deteriorate. Our small world is now focused on Europe and whether it can pull out of its debt debacle. Time to do so is running out for our friends across the pond.
| Data as of 11/25/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | -4.7% | -7.9% | -2.6% | 10.6% | -3.5% | 0.0% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | 5.7 | -21.2 | -17.5 | 9.7 | -5.3 | 3.8 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 2.0 | N/A | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -1.8 | 19.7 | 23.0 | 27.2 | 21.5 | 20.0 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | -2.2 | -12.7 | -3.2 | 5.4 | -3.8 | 4.7 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | -5.7 | -4.0 | -0.2 | 23.4 | -3.5 | 9.2 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
DOES IT MAKE SENSE to invest outside of the United States? The concept of diversification suggests that you own a diverse group of investments that have uncorrelated return characteristics. One of these diverse groups of investments could include non-U.S. stocks. That might make sense because, as the following chart shows, the U.S. stock market captures less than one-third of worldwide stock market value based on market capitalization.
% of World Equity Market Capitalization
| Country | 5 Years Ago | Mid August 2011 | 5-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. U.S. | 36.05% | 29.14% | -6.91% |
| 2. China | 1.36 | 7.87 | 6.52 |
| 3. Japan | 10.93 | 7.73 | -3.20 |
| 4. UK | 7.76 | 6.43 | -1.33 |
| 5. Hong Kong | 2.98 | 4.88 | 1.90 |
| 6. Canada | 3.25 | 4.20 | 0.96 |
| 7. France | 4.95 | 3.33 | -1.62 |
| 8. Germany | 3.35 | 2.80 | -0.55 |
| 9. India | 1.43 | 2.77 | 1.35 |
| 10. Brazil | 1.34 | 2.72 | 1.37 |
Source: Bespoke Investment Group, August 22, 2011; New Forces in the World Economy
by Brad Roberts
The above chart shows some interesting trends:
As the world turns from developed countries to emerging ones, we are keeping our eyes open and our pencils sharpened for the investment opportunities that might arise beyond our borders.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“We live in a wonderful world that is full of beauty, charm and adventure. There is no end to the adventures we can have if only we seek them with our eyes open.”
—Jawaharial Nehru, First prime minister of independent India
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
One of the insightful bits of investing wisdom is that you don’t have to recoup a loss using the same investment that caused the loss. In other words, it’s okay to sell a loser and redeploy the money in another investment that may have a better chance of going up in value. That seems to be what Greece and Italy are doing with their leadership change.
Greece is now counting on Lucas Papademos and Italy is counting on Mario Monti to lead their countries out of their debt mess.
If these guys take swift action and gain credibility, it could help the markets. As Barron’s pointed out this past weekend, “In the absence of new and nasty headlines or evidence of acute market stress, the default mode of stocks – at least for now – is to hang firm or to climb a bit.”
As of last Friday, the S&P 500 index turned positive on a year-to-date basis. We’ll have to wait and see if political change in Europe is enough to kick start the markets.
| Data as of 11/14/11 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) | 0.9% | 0.5% | 5.4% | 12.0% | -1.8% | 1.2% |
| DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) | -0.8 | -13.1 | -11.5 | 11.1 | -3.3 | 5.2 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) | 2.1 | N/A | 2.7 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.4 | 25.7 | 26.8 | 34.2 | 23.3 | 20.3 |
| DJ-UBS Commodity Index | -0.4 | -8.3 | -3.1 | 5.8 | -2.3 | 5.1 |
| DJ Equity All REIT TR Index | -0.6 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 23.0 | -0.7 | 10.5 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.
RIP VAN WINKLE SLEPT FOR 20 YEARS AND AWOKE TO DISCOVER that his world had changed dramatically. The U.S. stock market has been “asleep” for about 13 years now and in another seven, we may find our world is much different, too.
In the nearly 13 years between January 11, 1999 and last Friday, the S&P 500 index rose as high as 1,565 and dropped as low as 676. During that volatile period, we witnessed numerous impactful events including the following:
Yet, with all those world events and the tremendous moves in the S&P 500 – both up and down – during those nearly 13 years, guess how much the S&P 500 price changed between January 11, 1999 and last Friday?
Exactly zero!
That’s right. The S&P 500 closed at 1,263 on January 11, 1999 and at 1,263 last Friday, according to data from Yahoo! Finance.
Does this mean you should never invest in the stock market because it’s been flat for so long? No. Here are five things to understand from this long market malaise:
1. Dividends matter. While there was no price change between these two time periods, reinvesting dividends or owning investments that pay dividends may have generated a positive return.
2. Diversification matters. The S&P 500 was flat, but some other asset classes did fine over the past 13 years, so it’s important to search far and wide for investment opportunities.
3. Perspective matters. It’s easy to get caught up in the large day-to-day swings in the market, but understanding the broader trend or context of the market is important to help prevent day-to-day volatility from causing you to make bad investment decisions.
4. Patience matters. As long-term investors, we’re more like the tortoise than the hare. Short-term, rapid traders create a lot of noise and may lead the pack from time-to-time, but we’re focused on winning at the end, not at each checkpoint.
5. Valuation matters. The bubble-like values placed on some companies in the late 1990s were so out of whack with normalcy that it’s taken the market many years to work off those excesses. So, while patience is important, it’s also necessary to understand that valuation at the time you make your investment could have a major impact on how long it takes to get a return on your investment.
Nobody knows if the market will remain “asleep” for another seven years to match Mr. Van Winkle. Regardless, the world will be different and we’ll keep searching for ways to help you reach your destination without nightmares.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Rip Van Winkle, however, was one of those happy mortals, of foolish, well-oiled dispositions, who take the world easy, eat white bread or brown, which ever can be got with the least thought or trouble, and would rather starve on a penny than work for a pound.”
—Excerpt from Rip Van Winkle by Washington Irving
Best regards,
The Advocate Group
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.