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Weekly Commentary March 1, 2010 - The Markets

Three months ago, on December 1, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 1,108. Last week it closed at 1,104. After three months, the net movement in the stock market was just 4 points. Hmm. What does that tell us about investing? Here are a few thoughts that come to mind.

First, there is a lot of noise out there. What may seem like big news on the day it comes out (e.g., new U.S. home sales plunged in January 2010 to the lowest level on record dating back to 1963, according to the Department of Commerce), may actually just be one piece of information that briefly affects the markets and then is quickly forgotten.

Second, investing is a game of patience. As the past three-month stretch shows, the stock market can stay flat for a long period. Okay, three months is not exactly “a long period,” but there are historical precedents for the stock market staying flat for many years. For example, the closing price of the S&P 500 was only 1 point different on November 29, 1968 and August 17, 1982, according to MSN. That required nearly 14 years of patience!

Third, your patience may be rewarded. Between August 17, 1982 and March 24, 2000, the S&P 500 rose approximately 1,300%, according to data from Yahoo! Finance. That was nearly an 18-year payoff.

As you may already know, our current three-month flat period in the stock market is just the tip of the iceberg. Turning back the calendar, the S&P 500 closed at 1,105 on March 24, 1998, which is only 1 point higher than it closed at last Friday. This means the U.S. stock market has essentially gone nowhere in nearly 12 years. Ouch.

That may sound ugly but there is an upside. Many stocks pay dividends so, on a reinvested dividends basis, the return may look better over those 12 years. And, of course, there’s this thing called diversification. Other asset classes such as foreign stocks, bonds, real estate, and others may have provided a positive boost to an investor’s portfolio over that period. In summary, tune out the noise, be patient, and diversify.

Data as of 2/26/10	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)	-0.4%	-1.0%	50.3%	-8.7%	-1.7%	-2.0%
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)	0.3	-4.6	59.2	-8.9	1.8	0.3
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	3.6	N/A	3.0	4.6	4.4	6.4
Gold (per ounce)	-0.4	0.4	18.3	17.4	20.5	14.2
DJ-UBS Commodity Index	-0.7	-3.9	25.4	-8.3	-3.1	3.2
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index	0.8	-0.2	92.5	-14.6	1.7	11.2

Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ/AIG Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.

IS DEFLATION on the horizon? With all the money being pumped into the worldwide economy and our large state and federal deficits, many investors are preparing for a surge of inflation sometime down the road. Logically, that makes sense—but is that what will really happen?

Yes, the U.S. government has tried to pump, prime, and print its way to economic growth, but that has its limits. This money has to find a productive use or else it won’t “stimulate.” Here are a few things that are blocking our stimulus money from stimulating the economy.

First, banks have excess cash. Bank lending plays an important role in transforming easy money into economic growth. Unfortunately, banks are sitting on nearly $1 trillion of excess reserves at the Federal Reserve, up from essentially zero in the fall of 2008, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. This is $1 trillion above and beyond reserve requirements, which means banks could use that money to lend to businesses and consumers instead of keeping it safe and secure with the Fed.

Second, the unemployment rate is near 10% and jobless claims are remaining stubbornly high. It’s hard for consumers to spend when they are out of a job or worried about losing one.

Third, consumers are de-leveraging and paying down debt. By paying off their bills, consumers have less money to spend on goods and services. Less spending may lead to less economic growth.

Fourth, because of the deep recession, the U.S. has substantial excess capacity in its industrial sector. According to the Federal Reserve, capacity utilization was only 72.6% in January, which is well below the 1972-2009 average of 80.6%. With all this slack, there may be little upward pressure on prices because factories have room to add production.

Fifth, a little followed economic indicator from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank called the Trimmed Mean Inflation Index (TMII) is declining. This is an alternative measure of inflation, which adjusts for the month-to-month noise found in more popular inflation measures like CPI. For the 12 months ending December 2009, the TMII (inflation rate) was 1.3%—the lowest rate on record dating back to 1978.

So, while many people are talking about inflation, we also have to consider the possibility that deflation could happen first and then be followed by inflation down the road. It may not be a high probability, but it is on our radar and could impact the markets if it comes to fruition.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Success is simple. First, you decide what you want specifically; and second, you decide you’re willing to pay the price to make it happen, and then pay that price.”
—Nelson Bunker Hunt

Best Regards,

The Advocate Group

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.
Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

— 01 March 2010 Commentary

Weekly Commentary February 22, 2010 - The Markets

The U.S. stock market has had several “mini corrections” since the March 9, 2009 low and last week’s strong performance has some analysts saying the recent 9% drop in the S&P 500 from its mid-January high may have run its course, according to the Associated Press.

Stocks rose for the second consecutive week and have now recouped about two-thirds of the 9% drop that occurred between January 19 and February 8. Jitters about sovereign debt problems in Europe, central governments “taking away the punch bowl” of easy money, and a surprise rise in the discount rate last week have started to give way to the good news that corporate earnings are still moving up smartly, the manufacturing sector is on the rise, and inflation is subdued, according to Bloomberg.

Interestingly, whether you are bullish or bearish, there is still plenty of data to support either view. However, some of this data is contradictory which makes discerning solid trends a little more difficult. For example, the value of the U.S. dollar rose more than 8% against a basket of six currencies between late November 2009 and February 19, according to www.stockcharts.com. Yet, as the dollar is rising, our government is running trillion dollar deficits and the Federal Reserve continues to proclaim that it will keep interest rates low for an extended period of time—both of which would seem to be bad news for the value of the dollar.

Also, core consumer prices declined in January for the first time since 1982, suggesting inflation is well under control. Despite low inflation, gold closed last week over $1,100 an ounce, which is not far from its all-time record high, according to Barron’s and CNBC. Low inflation would seem to be bearish for gold prices, but, so far, gold has ignored our relatively stable prices.

This “new normal” of contradictory relationships makes navigating the financial markets a bit trickier than usual, but we are working hard to meet the challenge for you.

Data as of 2/19/10	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)	3.1%	-0.5%	44.0%	-8.8%	-1.3%	-2.0%
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)	1.5	-4.9	53.3	-8.8	2.0	0.4
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	3.8	N/A	2.9	4.7	4.3	6.3
Gold (per ounce)	2.8	-0.8	13.5	18.4	21.1	13.8
DJ-UBS Commodity Index	3.7	-3.1	29.6	-6.9	-2.5	3.2
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index	5.4	-1.0	89.4	-15.7	1.6	11.0

THE RICH ARE GETTING RICHER and the IRS just released some data that drives home that point. Below are some eye-popping tidbits on the top 400 individual tax returns based on largest Adjusted Gross Income, according to the IRS.

In 1992, the person ranked 400th on the list had an Adjusted Gross Income of $24.4 million. In 2007, that number rose to $138.8 million.
In 1992, the average Adjusted Gross Income for the 400 people on the list was $46.8 million. In 2007, the average rose to $344.8 million.
In 1992, the top 400 paid 1.0% of the country’s total income taxes. In 2007, they paid 2.1% of the total.
In 1992, the average tax rate for the top 400 was 26.4%. In 2007, the average tax rate was 16.6%.
During the 16 years between 1992 and 2007, a select group of 3,472 different people made the top 400 list at least once. And, out of those 3,472 people, 72% appeared on the list only once. At the other end, 7 extremely wealthy people made the top 400 list every one of those 16 years!

Do you have any guess as to who those 7 people are that made the top 400 list every year between 1992 and 2007? Inquiring minds want to know, but the IRS is not divulging the names.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“A man is rich in proportion to the number of things which he can afford to let alone.”
—Henry David Thoreau

Best Regards,

The Advocate Group

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.
Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

— 22 February 2010 Commentary

Weekly Commentary February 16, 2010 - The Markets

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary index for February that was reported last week declined slightly from the late January number and it was lower than expected as consumers continued to fret over unemployment. The index is now down 24% from January 2007, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Ironically, when consumers are glum, that could be good news for the financial markets.

A 2002 study by Meir Statman and Kenneth Fisher found that, “Low consumer confidence is followed by high stock returns more often than it is followed by low stock returns.” That seems a little counterintuitive because you would expect apprehensive consumers to be in no mood to buy financial securities and push their prices higher. On the contrary, though, the authors said, “When people lose confidence as consumers, they should regain it as investors.”

So, how does this make sense?

Not surprisingly, declining financial markets tend to drag down consumer confidence. However, at some point, financial markets typically revert to the mean and start heading up again. Often, financial markets start heading up before consumer confidence does. This suggests that consumer sentiment is a contrarian indicator, according to Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch.

Does this mean you should base your entire investment strategy on the level of the consumer sentiment index? No. Sentiment is just one of many indicators that may play a role in the complex interplay of factors that affect asset prices. Oh, and just for the record, the U.S. stock market did rise last week so the consumer sentiment “contrarian” indicator did work—at least for one week!

Returns through 2/12/10	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)	0.9%	-3.6%	30.1%	-9.1%	-2.3%	-2.5%
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)	1.4	-6.3	44.4	-8.5	1.9	0.1
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	3.7	N/A	2.7	4.8	4.1	6.5
Gold (per ounce)	2.3	-2.0	14.7	17.6	20.6	13.4
DJ-UBS Commodity Index	2.7	-6.6	19.2	-7.4	-2.4	2.8
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index	-0.5	-6.1	52.5	-16.5	0.0	10.3

THE DRUG OF EASY MONEY will eventually be withdrawn from the worldwide economy since governments cannot indefinitely spend (or create) money that they don’t have. The question of when and how that happens is looming large over the financial markets. Just in the U.S. alone, we invested (spent?) trillions of dollars propping up the economy, according to CNN, and so far, it has helped avert a potentially even larger disaster. Unfortunately, it may have just delayed the next day of reckoning.

So, how do you withdraw the drug of easy money from an economy without tipping it back into a recession? Very carefully! The Economist has identified three key issues to address in order to pull off an effective exit strategy.

First, you have to get the timing right. If you pull the stimulus too soon, you might end up with a relapse into recession. If you let the stimulus slosh through the economy too long, it could break the budget, lead to unacceptable inflation, or cause new bubbles to form.

Second, you have to get the tactics right. The two main tactics include cutting the government budget and raising interest rates. However, if you cut the budget too much, you run the risk of—you guessed it—another recession. Ditto for raising interest rates too soon.

Third, you have to get the technique right. The U.S., in particular, was zealous in creating newfangled funding mechanisms, bailout programs, backstop guarantees, and lending facilities to stop the market meltdown in 2008-09. How we unwind these programs may have a big impact on the economy so we have to get this right, too.

Ultimately, there are no easy answers to these three issues, yet they are vitally important to our economic future. And, the best way to monitor how effective the government is in answering these issues is to follow the reaction in the financial markets. Of course, we do that on your behalf so you can spend your time in areas that are most important to you.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Nobody can go back and start a new beginning, but anyone can start today and make a new ending.”
—Maria Robinson

Best regards,

The Advocate Group

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

— 16 February 2010 Commentary

Weekly Commentary February 8, 2010 - The Markets

Volatility in the financial markets has risen noticeably in the past few weeks as investors remain on edge about a multitude of issues.

A mixed employment report for January, continued budget deficit issues in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, monetary tightening in China, and a growing sense that the worldwide economy might be running on government stimulus fumes instead of stable gas all contributed to worldwide jitters, according to the Associated Press. In the U.S., the S&P 500 index dropped for the fourth week in a row and it is now down 7.3% from its January 15 recovery high, according to data from Yahoo! Finance. Foreign stocks, commodities, and gold are also down for the year as shown in the chart below.

The increase in investor anxiety helped send the value of the U.S. dollar up, up, and away. Last week, the dollar reached an eight-month high against the euro and a seven-month high against a trade-weighted basked of six major currencies, according to MarketWatch. The good news about a stronger dollar is that it suggests investors still have faith in the U.S. as a “safe haven” in times of uncertainty.

The global economy is still recovering from the Great Recession and the path to future prosperity will likely be bumpy. With proper seat belts, though, we will do our best to make the trip as smooth as possible.

Returns through 2/5/10	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)	-0.7%	-4.4%	22.8%	-9.7%	-2.4%	-2.9%
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)	-3.4	-7.6	40.0	-8.9	1.9	0.0
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	3.6	N/A	2.9	4.8	4.1	6.6
Gold (per ounce)	-1.9	-4.2	15.0	17.7	20.6	13.0
DJ-UBS Commodity Index	-1.9	-9.1	13.3	-8.5	-2.3	2.6
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index	-0.3	-5.5	51.4	-16.4	0.6	10.2

CORPORATE AMERICA IS MAKING AN EARNINGS RECOVERY, but the revenue recovery is slow to develop. For 2009, The Wall Street Journal projects that the S&P 500 companies will show a sales drop of $1.1 trillion, or 13% from the prior year. In the fourth quarter of 2009, revenue is expected to total just over $2 trillion, which would be the same number as the first quarter of 2006. In other words, this Great Recession has set corporate America’s revenue back nearly four years.

Interestingly, while revenue is back down to levels from nearly four years ago, total U.S. employment in January 2010 was back down to where it was in April 2000 – that’s nearly a 10-year setback in employment – according to data from the Department of Labor. This indicates that on a comparative basis, corporations have cut employment more dramatically than the decline in revenue. With employment levels back to where they were in early 2000, you can see why corporations are showing solid earnings growth (up 47% so far in Q4 2009 from the year earlier quarter excluding financial companies, according to The Wall Street Journal) even though revenue growth is weak (projected to rise just 0.9% in Q4 2009 from the year earlier quarter, according to The Wall Street Journal). Corporate America is showing profit gains partly due to the leverage from keeping employment costs low.

The good news is that Corporate America cannot keep employee headcount low indefinitely if revenue starts to rise significantly. Eventually, companies have to hire to support revenue expansion. When this new revenue expansion/hiring cycle starts is anybody’s guess. But, when it does, that could be a positive sign for the financial markets.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Investors repeatedly jump ship on a good strategy just because it hasn’t worked so well lately, and, almost invariably, abandon it at precisely the wrong time.”
– David Dreman

Best regards,

The Advocate Group

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.
Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.

— 08 February 2010 Commentary

Weekly Commentary February 1, 2010 - The Markets

Let’s recap some of the good news last week:

The Commerce Department said the economy grew in the fourth quarter at its fastest pace in more than six years;
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its index of Midwest business activity rose more than expected in January;
Consumer sentiment in January as measured by The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers hit its highest level in two years; and
Of the 220 companies in the S&P 500 index that have reported fourth quarter earnings, 78% of them exceeded analysts’ expectations, according to Thomson Reuters. In a typical quarter, only 61% of companies beat Wall Street targets.

Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? So, how does the stock market respond? It goes down.

Once you delve into it a little further, this “good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market” may not be as illogical as it seems. Do you remember how bad things were back in early March 2009? Just as the economy seemed on the brink of destruction, the stock market turned around and started soaring. Back then, investors detected the early signs of a turnaround in the economy. They were proven right as evidenced by last quarter’s GDP growth and the positive fourth quarter earnings that are now coming out.

Effectively, the stock market anticipated the recent positive news and that is partly why the market rallied so much in 2009. Now, it appears that much of this good news is already “priced” into the market. So, rather than propelling the market higher, the good news is causing some investors to take profits while waiting for the next catalyst.

Whether this recent downturn is just a bump along the bull market path or the beginning of a new leg down is unknown. Either way, we continue to monitor the situation on your behalf.

Returns through 1/29/10	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)	-1.6%	-3.7%	30.0%	-8.9%	-1.9%	-2.6%
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)	-3.4	-4.4	43.5	-7.4	2.8	0.7
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)	3.6	N/A	2.8	4.9	4.1	6.7
Gold (per ounce)	-0.5	-2.3	20.9	18.7	20.6	14.3
DJ-UBS Commodity Index	-4.3	-7.3	16.4	-7.0	-2.5	2.9
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index	-0.7	-5.2	41.7	-15.7	1.3	10.3

WHAT DO A MICROSCOPE AND A TELESCOPE have in common as it relates to investing? Both of them represent ways to look at the markets that may help us be better investors.

Structurally, we like to view the markets through a microscopic and a telescopic lens. Through reports like the one you are reading now, we keep tabs on what is happening at a microscopic level. We know that what happens in the short-term at the granular level could be early warning signs of longer-term changes. These microscopic changes could include things such as: changes in market internals and technical analysis, insider buying or selling, unexpected changes in economic numbers, and sentiment changes.

Our telescopic lens captures the big picture view of trends and opportunities that unfold over longer periods. These take longer to come to fruition, but usually end up generating the greatest rewards. Telescopic changes could include things such as: regulatory changes, technological changes, monetary and fiscal policy changes, and demographic changes.

Utilizing a microscopic and telescopic point of view helps us pay attention to the short-term so we don’t get blindsided, while allowing us to scan the horizon for bigger trends that may ultimately have the largest positive impact on your portfolio. You could also call it being “bifocal.”

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“It is impossible to produce a superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.”
John Templeton

Best regards,

The Advocate Group

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.
Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.

— 01 February 2010 Commentary

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